Elliot Dawes
Blog

The first article I read was “China and the “AfPak” Issue” by Michael D. Swaine. This long and extensive essay discusses China’s role in the conflict from many fronts. This analysis of Chinese interests, policies in regard to the AfPak problem and the Obama strategy suggests that all signs point to the continuation of China’s current cautious, limited stance toward the issue. Continuing from the past the Chinese leadership’s basic caution, and many of its concerns, are heavily influenced by China’s longstanding strategic interests in Pakistan, (mostly counter-balancing India’s realm of influence). On the other hand, Beijing’s limited yet arguably growing support for many U.S. and ISAF goals is also rooted in a sometimes cross-cutting set of Chinese interests in economic development, counterterrorism, the maintenance of friendly relations with Washington, and long-term stability in not only Afghanistan and Pakistan but also Central and South Asia as a whole.
The article continues with a more realist perspective, suggesting China’s interests suggests that, given existing larger conditions, and assuming relations between Islamabad, India and Afghanistan remain constant, Beijing in all probability will not attempt to push Islamabad to devote more resources and energies to the destruction of Afghanistan-oriented terrorist groups operating out of Pakistan and to deny sanctuaries within Pakistan to such groups. Also, even if Pakistan were to shift its stance (e.g., in response to a major escalation in terrorist attacks on the Pakistani government), it is not clear that Beijing would then encourage the Pakistani leadership to exert more efforts against the Afghan Taliban, given its larger desire to keep Pakistan focused on India, both militarily and politically. It is more likely that the Chinese leadership would attempt to aid a faltering Pakistani regime by providing more support to its military and intelligence services, while increasing economic and diplomatic assistance to Islamabad and strengthening the India-Pakistani border.
This essay was extremely interesting and insightful. I had yet to read an article that discussed and dissected the foreign policy of China, a very important and upcoming world super power on this issue. I realized how important a role China plays in the issue, being relatively next door to the issue, as a opposed to the US who, after withdrawing, will have a much easier time staying far away from the conflict and ensuing situation. China’s interest seem to be overwhelmingly concerned with keeping Pakistan stable in order to balance out India’s realm of control, not allowing them to become too powerful and influential in the region. Sadly, this translates into a lack of concern about counter-terrorism efforts, and efforts to smooth out issues with these groups instead of face them head on, which could potentially weaken Pakistan’s government for enough time to allow India to become overwhelmingly more influential.


Another very interesting article which I read was “The Pakistan and Afghanistan End Game” by Ashley J. Tellis for the Yale Global. The article discusses Pakistan’s role in the conflict, and the under-covered yet enormous role that Pakistan plays in supporting terrorists, and why. In an effort to secure a major position in Afghanistan and to slow India’s rise, Pakistan has mobilized militants and terrorists on both sides of its borders. While the Afghan Taliban fighting US and NATO forces continue to enjoy Pakistan’s support, Islamabad has changed its previous policy of supporting anti-Indian insurgencies with that of supporting terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which claimed responsibility for the deadly assault on Mumbai in 2008. With tension persisting between the two South Asian rivals, this tactic not only increases the prospect of major war between New Delhi and Islamabad, but, given Lashkar’s growing reach, could have global consequences.
Given the organization’s vast presence, its ability to raise funds worldwide, and its ability to conduct militant activities at great distances from its home base, LeT has become ISI’s preferred tool for its ongoing covert war with India. This includes the campaign that Pakistan is currently waging against the Indian presence in Afghanistan and against US counterinsurgency efforts in that country. Active LeT operations in Pakistan’s northwestern border areas involve close collaboration with Al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, the Haqqani network, and Jamiat al-Dawa al-Quran wal-Sunna. Washington has now reached the conclusion that LeT represents a threat to America’s national interests second only to Al Qaeda and in fact exceeds the latter by many measures.
This article was quite eye opening, and gave me more perspective on why Pakistan has been known to fund terrorists then I had every known. For 40 years Pakistan had funded local uprisings in the Kashmir region, and every time were met with humiliating and quick defeats by the Indian army. Having an apparent over-emphasized fear of India’s growing power, Pakistan has resorted to funding terrorist groups which are much harder to dismantle, and offer a constant disruption which will pull resources and time from India. It seems Pakistan picked up this tactic following the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan during the Cold War, in which it funded various Islamic extremists to fight, and consequently succeeded in driving out the Soviets.

Another article is “NY bomb plot will not terrorise Americans, says Obama” from BBC World News. Faisal Shahzad, a 30-year-old Pakistan-born US citizen, was arrested at John F Kennedy airport on Monday on board a plane. Police arrested him shortly before the Dubai-bound plane was due to take off, and US Attorney General Eric Holder says he will be charged with an act of terrorism and attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction, connected with the SUV that was found loaded with an improvised explosive device in Times Square.
Investigators say Mr Shahzad, from Connecticut, has told them he was acting alone and had no connections with foreign militant groups. Reports from Pakistan say Mr Shahzad's father-in-law and another associate of the suspect have been arrested in the port city of Karachi - although there has been no official confirmation. Sources told the BBC that Mr Shahzad was in Karachi for at least a month last year and other reports say he spent some months in the frontier city of Peshawar, close to Taliban strongholds and training grounds. On Sunday, the Pakistani Taliban said it was responsible for the failed bombing attempt and it threatened suicide attacks on US cities.
This article was obviously very relevant to myself and my life. This would have been a major situation in New York City. I live 30 minutes outside of the city, and my brother lives and works in the city and my dad works in the city as well. Now that the arrest has been made, it will be interesting to follow up on the alleged ties to the Pakistani Taliban. The man claims to have worked alone, but the Taliban has allegedly claimed responsibility for the failed attack. If this is true it will be one of the first time that the Taliban has attempted a major terrorist attack in the United States, and not a more “terrorism” centered organization such as Al- Quaeda, and it will mean a new chapter in Homeland Security and possibly the war in Afghanistan and relations with Pakistan as well.